The Greater Horn of Africa is in the middle of a short rains season that forecasters expected to be wetter and warmer than usual. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and national weather services issued the outlook in August at the 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Kigali, citing a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, two drivers that usually bring enhanced rainfall to the region.
The forecast
- ICPAC gave a 90% probability of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya.
- It saw a high likelihood of rainfall above 400 mm in parts of central and southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi and western Rwanda.
- Temperatures were also expected to be warmer than average across much of the region.
- ICPAC identified 1997 and 2023, both years with very wet conditions across much of the region, as comparable seasons.
The October to December season can provide up to 70% of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, so it matters for food production and water supplies. It followed a drier-than-normal July to September period across northern parts of the region.
Opportunities
Good rains can restore pasture, refill reservoirs and support planting after dry spells. For Kenya’s power system, where hydropower supplies more than a fifth of electricity, higher inflows can reduce reliance on imported power and thermal generation.
Risks
The comparison years are a warning. Heavy rains in 1997 and 2023 brought flooding, landslides and damage to roads and bridges across East Africa. Businesses should consider:
- Site exposure. Are warehouses, factories and depots in flood-prone areas? Are drainage systems cleared?
- Logistics. Which routes and suppliers are vulnerable to washed-out roads, and what are the alternatives?
- Stock and cash flow. Holding extra inventory of critical inputs and planning for delayed payments can cushion disruption.
- People. Staff travel, safety plans and the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks.
- Insurance. Check whether policies cover flood and business interruption, and keep records ready for claims.
ICPAC recommends using its seasonal outlook alongside weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological updates, which give more detail as the season unfolds.
Sources: ICPAC: Wetter-than-normal October–December 2026 season expected · ICPAC: GHACOF74 technical statement · The EastAfrican: IGAD warns of El Niño risks · WMO: El Niño impacts Greater Horn of Africa
