Every climate summit ends with numbers. Pledges are announced, totals are added up and communiqués promise solidarity. African delegations heading to COP31 in Antalya know the routine well. They also know that the numbers that matter most are not the ones read out on the final night, but the ones that show up years later in a county treasury, a water utility or a farmers’ cooperative.
The gap between promise and delivery
Developed countries promised in Glasgow to at least double adaptation finance by 2025. Africa needs around $70 billion a year to adapt; it received about $14.8 billion in 2023, according to Climate Policy Initiative. Less than half of committed adaptation finance is disbursed on average, and international public adaptation finance to developing countries actually fell in 2023. Aid budgets in several donor countries have since been cut.
Against that record, a new pledge in Antalya would be welcome but insufficient. What Africa needs is a way to hold the system to account for delivery.
What a delivery-focused COP31 would agree
- A public delivery tracker that reports adaptation finance disbursed, not just committed, by contributor and recipient, every year.
- Grants for adaptation in countries at high risk of debt distress. Lending money to build flood defences in a country already struggling with debt service moves the problem rather than solving it.
- Direct access for national and local institutions with a proven record, such as Kenya’s county climate funds, so money spends less time in transit.
- A clear path from the $300 billion-a-year finance goal agreed in Baku to specific, scheduled flows.
Africa’s own homework
Negotiators from the African Group have said success will be measured by how effectively the continent shapes outcomes. That requires a short list of shared priorities, held consistently through the two weeks, and a pipeline of investment-ready adaptation projects that show money can be used well. With COP32 coming to Addis Ababa in 2027, Africa also has a chance to report back on delivery on home ground.
If COP31 produces one thing, it should be a mechanism that makes it impossible to confuse a promise with a payment.
Sources: Ghana News Agency: African negotiators seek delivery at COP31 · The Standard: Why climate funds are not reaching Africa · AllAfrica: What Africa should canvass at COP31
